More and more countries are ruled by authoritarian, undemocratic, and intolerant leaders. All the different indices used to measure the democratic development in the world show that democracy has been declining for more than a decade. More people today live in countries with authoritarian tendencies than in countries heading towards a democratic direction.
These authoritarian, often right-wing nationalist leaders advocate withdrawing from international cooperation, closing borders, and putting the interests of their nation first. Short-term solutions such as trade tariffs, reduced aid, and new walls against the outside world become ways to show political action. They seek division and set groups of people against each other. As a result, polarization increases. In the long run, it risks leading to more war and conflict.
Conflict and social tension grow as the predicted impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly visible. Environment and climate-related risks, including extreme weather events, water scarcity, and the failure to adapt and mitigate climate change, are among the top risks the world faces. In 30 years, the UN estimates the number of climate refugees at 250 million.
Because of increased uncertainty, the total defense spending is rising, nuclear arsenals are being modernized, and armaments are under threat. We have not seen such an increase in world military spending since World War II as in 2019. Nuclear weapons pose a gigantic threat to all of humanity. Together with climate change, they are usually called the twin threat. A changing climate threatens the survival of mankind, and nuclear weapons can wipe out all life in an instant.
“The arms race is accelerating. The development of new nuclear weapons seems to suggest that the nuclear powers may actually consider fighting a nuclear war. The threat of war seems closer than for many years…the process of negotiating arms limitation was moribund.”
At a time when the world is engaged in a new arms race, spending almost two trillion dollars on its military, including 73 billion dollars by the nuclear powers on the estimated 14,000 nuclear weapons in the world, coupled with the abandonment and neglect of arms control treaties, you would be forgiven for thinking that the quote was a description of where our world stands today.
Wrong. The quote is almost forty years old. They are the words written by Olof Palme to introduce the report of the Independent Commission, which he chaired, on Disarmament and Security Issues. The report entitled “Common Security: A Blueprint for Survival” was published in 1982. The Commission had begun its work in 1980 and held its deliberations at the height of cold war tensions and the frightening prospect of nuclear war in Europe.